TECHNOLOGY AND THE HUMAN CONDITION
A survey about the future of technology and its impact on how humanity communicates, thinks and works from the mobile technologists who shape the industry.
PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY
Do you believe that the future of technology is full of opportunities to improve the human condition? Or do you believe we are set on a track toward human isolation? Do you see a future where humans will be marginalized by technology or one where technology will give us an upper hand?
The “2017 Technology and the Human Condition” report illuminates the perspective of 150 mobile product team members on the current and future state of technology and how it relates to their human experiences: how we think, communicate and work.
Our online survey called upon respondents working in mobile technology to express their opinions on the tech giants of the world, share insight into the potential for augmented reality and virtual reality, and predict where the innovations of the future lie. Autonomous cars, Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI) and other thought-provoking technology topics are addressed in this survey that brings into question: is the human condition better or worse with the rapid advancement of technology?
History of Reports
Our “Empowering Mobile Developers in 2015″ report gathered insights from approximately 500 mobile developers as we sought to understand how they work and how companies can make the most of working with a mobile development team. This year, we look at how those mobile professionals view the evolving industry and how advancements in technology will impact the way society thinks, communicates and works.
“Innovative technology reduces human error, minimizes labor and alleviates the burden of everyday tasks so humanity has more time to explore onwards. This freedom challenges our understanding of purpose and allows us to live our lives in ways we never imagined.”
Landscape
Dating back to the invention of the wheel, advancements in technology have continuously changed the way humans live, work, think and communicate. While some ideas have brought about industrial revolutions and transformations in transportation, other discoveries have significantly improved public health and have doubled modern life expectancies. We’ve seen a tremendous change in how technology enhances our daily lives, impacts the way we communicate with each other and influences how we share information.
How do mobile professionals feel about technology’s growing impact on the human experience? Many are excited about the future: they know certain technologies including artificial intelligence, virtual reality, augmented reality, connected cars and the Internet of Things have the potential to change the world, both at the macro level and with day-to-day tasks. They also believe most current technology is either not mature enough, not useful enough or secure enough for mainstream adoption. Innovation is driving society forward at a fast pace, and both technologists and consumers must acclimate to this changing atmosphere.
Let’s take a look at how product teams who actively imagine, design and invent these new technologies feel about the connected world and its impact on human cognition, communication and work.
Demographics
Technology’s Impact on how humans think
The majority of our survey respondents believe technology’s ability to positively impact our lives far outweighs the negative implications. While technology can make people less reliant on their own ability to problem-solve, it will also free us from mundane activities so we can pursue higher intellectual thinking.
“Technology is used to remove the most menial and unfulfilling tasks from humans. Only now do we have time and energy for more abstract thinking as technology has eliminated our need to continuously fight for survival.”
Technology is taking over more routine, repetitive tasks, and humans are coming to grips with trusting technology to make our lives simpler. AI is creeping into our homes, modes of transportation and our smartphones. Driverless cars are on the road in many of our cities, and just a few years ago, we wouldn’t have entertained the idea that we could hail a private car through an app with the swipe of a finger.
Fifty-nine percent of our survey respondents say they would ride in a driverless Uber car today.
Now technology makes it possible to travel without having to interact with a human at all. This kind of disruption is transforming our concept of what we consider to be normal and safe.
But, are mainstream Americans ready to embrace direct communication with a computer? AI enthusiasts seem to think so. Research firm Tractica estimates by 2021, more than 40 million homes will have a home assistant. Amazon’s industry-leading Alexa has become a household name, selling more than five million units since 2015.
Google jumped into the smart assistant space in Nov. 2016 with the launch of the Google Home and is growing quickly. Though Google and Amazon are not the only smart assistant products on the market, the two are expected to sell more than 24 million combined units in 2017.
While Amazon currently leads the smart assistant category, 50 percent of our survey respondents believe Google will eventually outpace Amazon. These same respondents also believe Google will be the most innovative tech giant in 20 years.
Personal home assistants are one of the newest connected home devices to join the Internet of Things, and Gartner research suggests more than 6.4 billion devices will connect to the Internet in 2016. This number is expected to reach anywhere from 25 to 50 billion by 2020. We asked those surveyed what they thought about the future of IoT, and the majority believe IoT will achieve widespread adoption quickly.
In fact, 72 percent of respondents agree or somewhat agree that all electronics will have an IP address by 2050.
As our personal and professional lives become more connected, we entrust computers with larger amounts of our personal information. While we still crave human interaction, do we place the same amount of trust in humans or has some of that trust been transferred to computers?
Our survey asked whether respondents trust computers or humans more, and 56 percent answered they trust computers because humans have the potential to make more mistakes. Computers don’t have an emotional element that clouds their decision-making efforts or as one respondent puts it, “Computers don’t have bad days.”
Most respondents elaborated on that response, agreeing computers have the upper hand when conducting microsecond decision-making. While we rely on humans to build algorithms, those algorithms accomplish tasks much faster and more efficiently than humans do.
“Humans have a limit to the amount of data that can be stored in their heads. Computers don’t and can make connections between much larger data sets that lead to eureka moments.”
Respondents also acknowledged that the human-built algorithms that power machine learning are only as accurate as the person who wrote the code. Respondents agreed that while computers can be trusted to make fewer mistakes, certain decisions – especially when instinct or empathy is involved such as conducting surgery or diagnosing diseases – require a human element.
Though technology professionals trust computers more than humans, only five percent believe the data stored in computers is absolutely secure, and 59 percent believe it is somewhat secure. Overall, we have a long way to go in terms of data security.
Software teams likely skew higher than the rest of the population when it comes to placing trust in computers since they are actively engaged in creating the software. They’ve had more time in this progressive atmosphere to adapt and embrace innovation; They’ve seen their work positively impact human productivity and present opportunities to explore solutions to new problems.
Humans are highly adaptable beings, especially when exposed to new ideas and tools. Though mainstream audiences may not live and breathe technology innovation on the same level as software development teams, their adoption of technology will surely grow as they witness more benefits of leveraging technology to improve their daily lives.
Technology’s Impact on how humans communicate
“People will always think for themselves; technology simply changes what the discussion is about. I don’t have to ask my friends what their favorite restaurant is anymore, I can ask about how they feel about it now thanks to Yelp. I don’t need turn-by-turn directions to get to a friend’s house anymore, but can instead ask if the drive is pleasant.”
For several years, we’ve mused about the effect social media has on human interaction and communication. For many, regular contact triggers like birthday reminders on Facebook or job promotion updates through LinkedIn give us the reason to reach out to contacts with whom we don’t regularly communicate. On the other hand, some dissidents argue social media has caused us to feel more alone than ever.
Today, new technologies will surely impact how we communicate with others, especially when physical limitations are removed. Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) are two technologies that merit attention. In late 2016, Google, HTC, Oculus, Samsung, Sony and Acer built the Global Virtual Reality Association to further explore and develop the marketplace for VR.
Improving the human connection with AR/VR
Removing Physical Barriers
Our survey respondents believe AR and VR have the potential to enhance human connection. Overall, survey respondents felt optimistic;
Sixty-three percent believe AR/VR enhances rather than takes away from the human experience, and 57 percent specifically believe AR/VR will help us develop empathy for each other.
Humans naturally crave connections with each other, and AR and VR can provide enhanced realities that help foster those relationships, especially for those who are isolated. Though, the extent to which AR and VR contribute to deeper connections will largely depend on how the technology is used.
Our results showed that 63 percent of respondents want to use AR and VR technology to immerse themselves into reality opposed to escape reality.
AR and VR can create new ways to interact with each other and can remove barriers to communicating and interacting, especially for those who are limited by physical, emotional and psychological challenges.
For homebound people who are unable or unwilling to leave the house, VR can foster a sense of belonging, familiarity and personalization that allows them to connect to one another even when limited by physical geography.
Aaron Frank, principal faculty at Singularity University, a Silicon Valley think tank, tells VentureBeat, “If simply hearing someone’s voice and seeing a few body-tracked mannerisms is enough to convince my brain that I’m hanging out with someone I know, I can only imagine future social VR experiences that build on that sensation to make me believe I’m actually hanging out with friends.”
“AR and VR have the ability to help us see the world from a different perspective, which can give us a better understanding of people different from us.”
While AR and VR are often lumped together (including in our survey), their abilities to reach mainstream market success are very different. Most in the industry, including those we surveyed, believe AR will see market success far sooner than VR, but there’s little consensus about when.
Forty-seven percent of respondents believe AR is not currently useful to the general public. AR has the potential to be useful in a few years, but it needs to be more mature and affordable (18 percent think cost is a barrier for mainstream consumption). While this technology is certainly valuable to certain industries and professional environments, 25 percent see AR/VR as gimmicky, new shiny objects meant solely for entertainment/fun.
Our survey respondents generally agree that the expense of AR and VR is not yet justified given the lack of significant consumer value the technologies offer. Currently, edge cases of AR and VR have proven beneficial, but the industry will need to find a way to make the technology more predictable, accessible and affordable to become ubiquitous with mainstream consumers.
“Like all technologies, to be adopted by the mass, AR must be reliable and affordable. And I don’t see that happening for at least five years.”
Technology’s Impact on how humans work
Digital innovation is one of the most important driving factors of our country’s economy, and it has a significant role in evolving the workplace. Its impact on industrial process alone has changed the way most manufacturers do business and has led these companies to significant increases in operational efficiencies, production volumes, communication, revenue and workforce safety.
Which industries are most poised for digital disruption? We asked those surveyed to weigh in on where they see the most opportunity for innovation.
VR’s impact on the workplace
The Value Beyond Gaming
Once considered relevant only to the gaming industry, VR now boasts use cases among a wide array of industries with potential for significant financial growth. According to the International Data Corporation, AR and VR will have a $162 billion impact on sales across all industries by 2020. Especially in healthcare, industrial, and defense applications VR can reduce safety risks for workers and decrease insurance premiums at worksites where there is a high level of personal danger.
When used in combination with robots, technology allows companies to reduce human vulnerability, therefore reducing hazard pay costs. Consider hospital workers who care for Ebola patients or radioactive cleanup workers at disaster sites like Fukushima.
With VR, we can perform tasks remotely, opening doors to solving problems virtually anywhere in the world with little human risk. We can still be the eyes and ears that oversee the application of technology without needing to be physically present.
When asked what other industries VR will most likely impact next in a large way, those surveyed highlighted Entertainment, Training & Education and Healthcare.
A combined 28 percent of respondents believe VR has the potential to create value in education and training – especially when it comes to on-the-job training. Thirty-five percent of combined respondents think VR’s potential lies in Entertainment/Media and Gaming.
35%
Entertainment
28%
Training & Education
8%
Healthcare
7%
Travel & Tourism
6%
Transportation
5%
Aerospace
3%
Sports
3%
Agriculture
3%
Real Estate
2%
Architecture
VR in Entertainment
“People are already used to watching movies and playing video games, but imagine a world where you can fully visualize a game or be a part of a movie as it happens.”
Because of the immersive nature of VR, the gaming industry embraced the technology early on and has driven most of the category’s forward movement. While Sega may have launched the first consumer 3D gaming headset in the 1980s, it wasn’t until Oculus Rift hit the market that VR began to gain traction. The once primitive user experience has benefitted from improvements in video, animations and developer tools. Now that Facebook owns Oculus, the company has the financial support and backing to continue innovating on its core technology.
There are almost 56 million gamers using VR today and in 2016, gaming generated more than $5 billion from VR. Asia is driving user adoption and the cost-effective Google Cardboard dominates device installs. For now, because the current audience skews younger, there is a high drop-off rate for early adopters looking for a more affordable option. As the technology becomes more appealing to older demographics with more spending power, VR will further expand.
VR in Training & Education
“Training simulation for military, police, medical personnel… the list of applications goes on. I doubt we’ll see substantial improvements in virtual reality until the military widely adopts it.”
VR is actively used by the U.S. military for training purposes, especially for reaction techniques for use during combat and other life-threatening situations. VR applications allow servicemen and women to simulate events in a controlled environment. Some of the exercises currently leveraging VR include battlefield simulations, battlefield medic trainings, flight simulations, virtual boot camps and vehicle training.
Flight simulators are significantly utilized because of the high cost to use real aircraft for airborne training. The military has saved thousands of dollars by using technology that reduces the number of personnel and equipment needed to run training exercises.
In education, VR is bringing otherwise intangible educational experiences into the classroom. Imagine placing a student in the center of a battlefield during World War II or letting them experience what it would be like to stand in front of the Lighthouse of Alexandria. One survey respondent puts it, “seeing and experiencing ‘the real thing’ helps our brain to understand and learn faster and more efficiently. It can also extend the budgets of schools that can’t provide many out-of-classroom experiences.”
VR in Healthcare
The healthcare industry has always been at the forefront of technological innovation. Consider how teleworking today allows doctors in one part of the world to diagnose and treat patients in a different country. Remote patient monitoring gives medical professionals a greater ability to improve patient outcomes, provide greater access to medical care and reduce associated costs.
VR is now spreading into the healthcare space, and its use is predicted to increase significantly in the next few years. Research firm IndustryARC predicts the healthcare industry will continue to explore AR and VR, especially for outpatient and clinical care and training simulations and will generate more than $2.5 billion in revenue by 2020.
Mental health professionals have used AR and VR for more than a decade to immerse patients in realities where they can confront fear and trauma in a safe, controlled environment. In many cases, VR therapy is replacing drug therapy to treat PTSD patients, especially former soldiers and war veterans. Thanks to military funding, ample study results show the benefit of VR to provide safer, more effective patient outcomes.
AI and its impact on employment
Is Your Job Safe?
“Artificial intelligence does not have emotion, nor does a well-written algorithm make mistakes. Only the people programming AI make mistakes.”
Not only does technology have the ability to improve workforces and industries, but computers are getting smarter and have the potential to replace jobs: especially menial, repetitive jobs prevalent in industries with production linemen and factory laborers.
Computers are taking on more tasks previously performed by humans, as well as getting smarter about predicting human behavior and intent. In 2014, Vincent C. Müller of the Anatolia College and Nick Bostrom of the University of Oxford fielded a survey among machine intelligence experts who predicted that by 2050, computers will achieve human-level ability, and they will surpass our ability by 2080.
We asked technologists if they believe more jobs will be lost to technology, specifically to artificial intelligence, or if more jobs will be created to build and monitor AI.
This number is higher than mainstream workers who may not understand how vulnerable they are because, according to a Pew Research survey, only 11 percent of those workers are “somewhat concerned” their job is at risk.
This forecast has tremendous implications for the workforce – both in the creation of new disciplines required to develop and manage technology and the data produced from its adoption. And the landscape is changing quickly. In 2015, Pew Research Center reported that “65 percent of Americans expect that within 50 years robots and computers will ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ do much of the work currently done by humans.”
We also asked those surveyed if their jobs will be susceptible to becoming obsolete as we march at the current pace of innovation. Fifty-eight percent of those involved in software development/product ownership feel their jobs are safe.
No matter how much effort and micro decision-making is shouldered by technology, humans must still assess data and conduct necessary oversight. This will require many knowledge workers to develop new skills to stay relevant in the workplace. As technology becomes more complex, we will need more intricate, comprehensive skills to monitor and service new technologies.
“Technology is only a tool; it cannot think creatively and can only solve problems in a limited situation or domain after much human work is done to get it to the point of making an informed decision.”
Conclusion
Never before has technology been so pervasive in an individual’s life. Though historically we have been in favor of trusting human interaction over automated computer processes, we are becoming more accustomed to technology’s influence on our daily routines. New tools allow us to do more in less time, communicate ideas instantly and effortlessly and provide the freedom to focus on more profound problems.
Mobile technologists are at the forefront of this movement, actively designing and developing new technologies that shape the future, and they are excited about the possibilities it has to offer. We’ve discovered that experts, more than mainstream consumers, understand the benefits of technology come with many changes to the way we view its role in our lives. Product teams are working toward a future where the ubiquitous presence of computers is as common with non-technical consumers as it is with technologists. We surmise that technologists’ continuous immersion in a culture of innovation has led them to have a more forward-thinking, even more radical perspective leading to a greater trust in technology.
Workplace evolution means that some jobs previously performed by humans will become obsolete, negatively impacting employment opportunities. But innovation must also accommodate the need to create new jobs in response to our ever-evolving environment. The need for human oversight will be greater than ever. While some jobs will surely be lost, hopefully new jobs will be created as the need for skilled knowledge workers with keen cognitive ability grows.
The integration of technology into workplaces creates an increased reliance on that same technology to perform tasks seamlessly without error. We have to trust that an algorithm will do its job as intended, every time. This evolution requires us to place a deeper sense of trust in artificial intelligence and to understand that the amount of data we generate every day is what will allow AI to become more intelligent.
Technology merely enables humanity to be more productive. It is a tool meant to enhance our abilities to create solutions to the problems we face as a society. Ultimately, human need and desire will drive innovation.